Behind the Decline: Why Fewer Children Are in Foster Care — and Why That's Complicated
The U.S. foster care population has fallen every year since 2019. Is this progress, or are we simply looking away? A data-driven examination of what's driving the numbers.
423,997
FY 2018 Children in Care
Peak of the modern foster care era
328,947
FY 2024 Children in Care
A 22% decline over six years
26%
Adoption Decline Since 2019
Drop in foster care adoptions from 2019 to 2024
On paper, the trend is unambiguous: the number of children in U.S. foster care has declined for six consecutive years, from 423,997 in FY 2018 to 328,947 in FY 2024. That's a 22% reduction. But declaring victory would be premature — the story behind the decline is far more nuanced.
What's Driving the Decline
1. Prevention and Early Intervention
States have invested heavily in preventing removals. The Family First Prevention Services Act (2018) fundamentally shifted federal funding toward keeping families together. In Texas, the PEI division received $65 million in additional funding and was elevated to the Health and Human Services Commission. These investments appear to be reducing the number of families that reach crisis.
2. Kinship Diversion
More children are being placed with relatives before entering the formal foster care system. In Texas alone, an estimated 263,013 children live in kinship households — most in informal arrangements that never appear in foster care statistics.
3. Pandemic Disruption
COVID-19 reduced referrals to child protective services as children had less contact with mandatory reporters (teachers, doctors, counselors). Referral rates have partially recovered but remain below pre-pandemic levels in many states.
The Warning Signs
Fewer Exits, Too
FY 2024 saw 176,730 exits from foster care — the fewest since AFCARS reporting began. Fewer children entering care is good; fewer children finding permanent homes is not.
Adoption Freefall
Adoptions from foster care have dropped 26% since 2019, hitting their lowest level since 1999. Children who can't be reunified and aren't adopted face years in limbo — or age out entirely.
Time in Care Is Growing
Thirty percent of children who exited in FY 2024 spent more than two years in care. That's 64,121 children, including approximately 35,000 who spent three or more years.
Reading the Data Honestly
The decline in foster care numbers reflects real progress in prevention. But it also masks growing difficulties in achieving permanency for children who do enter care. A smaller system is only better if it's also faster, more effective, and more humane for the children who remain.
Sources: AFCARS FY 2024, Family First Prevention Services Act Implementation Data, DFPS Data Book, CAFO 2025